The Amazon Kindle has sparked huge media interest in e-books and has seemingly jump-started the market. Its instant wireless access to hundreds of thousands of e-books and seamless one-click purchasing process would seem to give it an enormous edge over other dedicated e-book platforms. Yet I have a bold prediction: Unless Amazon embraces open e-book standards like epub, which allow readers to read books on a variety of devices, the Kindle will be gone within two or three years.
To understand why I say that, I'll need to share a bit of history.
Le Kindle d'Amazon a déclenché un énorme intérêt des médias pour les livres électroniques, et en a apparemment amorcé le marché. L'accès instantané à des centaines de livres électroniques et la possibilité d'en acheter de nouveaux d'un seul clic lui donnerait apparemment un avantage énorme sur les autres plateformes dédiées aux e-books. J'ai pourtant une prédiction : à moins qu'Amazon n'utilise les formats standards pour les ebooks, comme epub, qui permettent de lire des livres sur toute une variété d'appareils, le Kindle aura disparu d'ici deux ou trois ans.
Pour comprendre pourquoi j'affirme cela, je dois effectuer un petit retour en arrière.
Kindle Open Book - §1
In 1994, at an industry conference, I had an exchange with Nathan Myhrvold, then Microsoft's chief technology officer. Myhrvold had just shown a graph that prefigured Chris Anderson's famous "long tail" graph by well over a decade. Here's what I remember him saying: "Very few documents are read by millions of people. Millions of documents--notes to yourself, your spouse, your friends--are read by only a few people. There's an entire space in the middle, though, that will be the basis of a new information economy. That's the space that we are making accessible with the Microsoft Network." (These aren't Myhrvold's exact words but the gist of his remarks as I remember them.)
En 1994 pendant une conférence de l'industrie, j'ai eu un échange avec Nathan Myhrvold, qui était alors chef de la division Technologies de Microsoft. Myhrvold venait de montrer un graphique qui préfigurait d'au moins 10 ans le fameux graphique « Long Tail »de Chris Anderson. Je me souviens qu'il a dit « Très peu de documents sont lus par des millions de personnes. Des millions de documents -- des notes pour vous-mêmes, votre épouse, vos amis -- sont lus par seulement quelques personnes. Il y a cependant un espace entier entre les deux, qui sera la base d'une nouvelle économie de l'information. C'est l'espace que nous rendons accessible avec le Microsoft Network. » (Ce ne sont pas les mots exacts de Myhrvold, mais le sens général de ses remarques telles que je m'en souviens.)
Kindle Open Book - §1bis
During the Q&A, I said: "What you said is completely right, but it's not the Microsoft Network that is going to deliver that information economy. It's the World Wide Web."
Pendant la session de questions/réponses, j'ai dit "Ce que vous dites est vrai, mais ce n'est pas Microsoft Network qui fournira cette économie de l'information. C'est le World Wide Web."
Kindle Open Book - §2
You see, I'd recently been approached by the folks at the Microsoft Network. They'd identified O'Reilly as an interesting specialty publisher, just the kind of target that they hoped would embrace the Microsoft Network (or MSN, as it came to be called). The offer was simple: Pay Microsoft a $50,000 fee plus a share of any revenue, and in return it would provide this great platform for publishing, with proprietary publishing tools and file formats that would restrict our content to users of the Microsoft platform.
Vous voyez, j'avais été approché récemment par les gens de Microsoft Network. Ils avaient identifié O'Reilly comme étant un éditeur [******] une cotisation 50 000 $ à Microsoft, plus une partie des revenus, et en retour ils fourniraient cette formidable plateforme, ainsi que les outils d'édition propriétaires et les formats de fichiers qui restreindraient nos contenus aux utilisateurs de la plateforme Microsoft.
Kindle Open Book - §3
The only problem was we'd already embraced the alternative: We had downloaded free Web server software and published documents using an open standards format. That meant anyone could read them using a free browser.
Le seul problème était que nous avions déjà basculé vers l'alternative: nous avions téléchargé le logiciel libre (free) du serveur Web, et publié des documents en utilisant des formats standards ouverts. Cela voulait dire que n'importe qui pouvait les lire en utilisant un navigateur libre.
Kindle Open Book - §4
While MSN had better tools and interfaces than the primitive World Wide Web, it was clear to us that the Web's low barriers to entry would help it to evolve more quickly, would bring in more competition and innovation, and would eventually win the day.
Alors que MSN avait de meilleurs outils et de meilleures interfaces que le World Wide Web primitif d'alors, il était clair pour nous que les faibles barrières à l'entrée sur le Web l'aideraient à évoluer plus vite, y apporteraient plus de compétition et d'innovation, et finiraient éventuellement par lui faire gagner la partie
Kindle Open Book - §5
In fact, the year before, we'd launched The Global Network Navigator, or GNN, the world's first Web portal and the first Web site supported by advertising. To jump-start GNN, we hosted and sponsored the further development of the free Viola web browser, as a kind of demonstration project. We weren't a software company, but we wanted to show what was possible.
En fait l'année précédente nous avions lancé le navigateur global de réseau (Global Network Navigator), ou GNN, le premier portail Web au monde, et le premier site Web financé par la publicité. Pour démarrer GNN, nous accueillions et sponsorisions les prochains développements du navigateur libre Viola, en tant que projet de démonstration. Nous n'étions pas une entreprise du logiciel, mais nous voulions démontrer que c'était possible.
Kindle Open Book - §6
Sure enough, the Mosaic Web browser was launched shortly thereafter. The Web took off, and MSN, which later abandoned its proprietary architecture, never quite caught up.
Bien sur, le navigateur Web Mosaic a été lancé peu après. Le Web a alors démarré, et MSN, qui a plus tard abandonné son architecture propriétaire ne s'est jamais imposé.
Kindle Open Book - §1
For our part, we recognized that the Web was growing faster than we could, particularly as a private company uninterested in outside financing. So we sold GNN to America Online in June 1995. Big mistake. Despite telling us that they wanted to embrace the Web, they kept GNN as an "off brand," continuing to focus on their proprietary AOL platform and allowing Yahoo! to dominate the new online information platform.
Pour notre part, nous savions que le Web grandissait plus vite que nous ne pouvions le suivre, en particulier en tant qu'une entreprise qui n'était pas intéressée par un financement extérieur. Alors nous avons vendu GNN à america Online en Juin 1995. Grosse erreur. Bien qu'ils nous aient dit qu'ils voulaient se dédier au Web, ils ont gardé GNN comme un produit hors marque (ndt: off brand), et ont continué à se concentrer sur leur plateforme propriétaire AOL, et à autoriser Yahoo! à dominer la nouvelle plateforme d'information online.
Kindle Open Book - §7
So it was with a feeling of deja vu that I listened in mid-2007 to the promises of Amazon about the potential of its new proprietary e-book platform. While no payment is required to participate, there are clearly onerous restrictions that could limit the growth of the market: a proprietary file format, and the requirement that the e-books only be sold by Amazon.com.
Ainsi c'est avec une impression de déjà vu que j'ai écouté mi 2007 les promesses faites par Amazon sur le potentiel de leur nouvelle plateforme propriétaire de livres électroniques. Bien qu'aucun paiement ne soit nécessaire pour y participer, il y a des restrictions clairement lourdes de conséquences, qui limiteraient la croissance du marché : un format de fichier propriétaire, et l'exigence que les livres électroniques ne seraient vendus que par Amazon.com.
Kindle Open Book - §8
The file format was a problem for us from the get-go: Amazon's Kindle file format doesn't provide support for tables or for so-called monospaced fonts, two formatting features that we use heavily in our line of technical books. And there is a viable alternative: Epub, the open format from the International Digital Publishing Forum, is based on the Web's native format, HTML, and provides full table and font support. This is the first "strategy tax" paid by those who embrace proprietary platforms: They can't support the needs of every niche and must prioritize their support for mainstream needs.
Le format de fichier était pour nous un problème dès le départ: Le format de fichier du Kindle d'Amazon ne fournit pas le support pour les tableaux, ni pour les polices fixes, deux types de formatages que nous utilisons intensivement dans notre ligne de livres techniques. Et puis il existe une alternative viable : Epub, le format ouvert du International Digital Publishing Forum (ndt: Forum internationalde publication numérique), est basé sur le format natif du Web, HTML, et supporte totalement les tableaux et les polices de caractères. C'est la première "taxe stratégique" payée par ceux qui utilisent les plateformes propriétaires : ils ne peuvent pas répondre aux besoins de chaque niche, et doivent prioriser leur support aux besoins du courant principal.
Kindle Open Book - §9
The single point of purchase was also a non-starter for us, since my fundamental understanding of information marketplaces is that they grow bigger and more lucrative for everyone when there is a rich ecosystem of cooperating players. (Here's the text of a talk I gave on that subject back in 2000.)
History has already begun to repeat itself.
Le point de vente unique était aussi rédhibitoire pour nous, car ma compréhension des marchés de l'information est qu'ils deviennent plus grands et plus lucratifs pour tous lorsqu'il existe un riche écosystème de participants coopératifs (Voici le texte d'un discours que j'ai fait sur le sujet en 2000 : http://tim.oreilly.com/articles/drmtalk.html).
L'histoire a déjà commencé à se répeter.
Kindle Open Book - §10
We've thrown our support behind epub and other open e-book standards, providing our books as "e-book bundles" that give the reader the choice of pdf (still the only viable choice for many highly formatted books like our Head First series of "brain friendly" tutorials that even HTML can't handle), epub, and mobi, an HTML-based predecessor to the Kindle format that lacks digital rights management but that can be imported into the Kindle. To help jump-start the market, we're hosting and supporting the free bookworm e-book reader.
Nous avons donné notre appui au format epub, ainsi qu'à d'autres formats de e-books, en fournissants nos livres dans des "e-book bundles" qui donnent au lecteur le choix entre pdf (à ce jour encore le seul choix viable pour beaucoup de livres à la mise en page complexe comme "Head First", notre série de tutoriels abordables (ndt: brain friendly") que même HTML ne peut pas gérer), epub et mobi, un préprocesseur vers le format Kindle, basé sur HTML et ne gérant pas les DRM, mais qui peut être importé sur le Kindle. Pour aider à amorcer le marché, nous hébergeons et supportons le lecteur d'e-book libre bookworm.
Kindle Open Book - §11
While Amazon doesn't reveal sales figures, industry estimates place Kindle device sales somewhere in the region of 500,000 to 700,000 units. Meanwhile, another e-ink device, the Sony Reader, claims to have sold about 300,000 units. Neither discloses the number of e-books sold. In fact, Amazon's agreements with publishers prohibit any disclosure of sales figures.
Alors qu'Amazon ne donne aucun chiffre, l'industrie estime les ventes du Kindle quelque-part entre 500 000 et 700 000 exemplaires. Pendant ce temps, un autre appareil de type e-ink, le Sony Reader, revendique la vente d'environ 300 000 unités. Aucun des deux de divulgue le nombre de livres vendus. En fait, l'accord entre Amazon et les éditeurs interdit la divulgation des chiffres de ventes des livres.
Kindle Open Book - §12
But we can already see the momentum on the open e-book platform. Stanza, the epub-based e-book reader for the iPhone and other Web-capable phones, may well be playing Mosaic to bookworm's Viola. Lexcycle, the creator of Stanza, announced recently that its software has been downloaded more than 1.3 million times, and that more than 5 million e-books have been downloaded.
Kindle Open Book - §13
Most of those 5 million e-books are free, public-domain books, to be sure. Only a tiny fraction are paid downloads--so far. But at O'Reilly, we already have a proof point of the power of the new Stanza/epub platform. We released one of our books, David Pogue's iPhone: The Missing Manual as an application bundle with Stanza through the iPhone store. In the six weeks since it was released, it has outsold its print counterpart even though that paper-based version has been the best-selling computer book in the market, and is outselling its closest competitor by a ratio of 3:1. Even though the iPhone application is only 20% of the price of the printed book ($4.95 vs. $24.95), it doesn't appear to be cutting into sales of the bound edition.
Kindle Open Book - §14
And frankly, this is what we saw with the original World Wide Web. Most of the initial content was free. Even now, the bulk of the content on the Web is supported by advertising. But that advertising business model has created more than one multibillion-dollar company. Meanwhile, other business models also thrive, much as I predicted back in 1996 when I wrote Publishing Models for Internet Commerce.
Kindle Open Book - §15
For example, at O'Reilly, we offer our books, along with those from more than 30 other technical and business book publishers, through Safari Books Online, which we launched in partnership with the Pearson Technology Group back in 2000. Safari has a different model than downloadable e-books--it's an online subscription service that provides access to more than 8,000 books and videos for a single monthly fee. But it's also HTML- and PDF-based, using formats that anyone can read on any device. We recently introduced a mobile-friendly version of the service. Safari now represents O'Reilly's second-largest channel for sales of our content (ahead of print sales through Barnes & Noble, and behind only Amazon.)
Kindle Open Book - §16
In developing the business plan for the Kindle, Amazon was no doubt influenced by the great success of Apple with the iPod: Proprietary hardware and proprietary file formats made Apple into the kingpin of the digital music industry. But what Amazon seems to have missed is the important role that "free" played in the success of the iPod. People didn't populate their iPods solely with music purchased from Apple. It was easy for them to "rip" their own CDs into the standard mp3 file format and load their entire music collection onto the device.
Kindle Open Book - §17
While users can load some of their own documents onto the Kindle, there is no easy way to "rip" a book. But with epub-based readers, there are millions of free titles available, and books are available from many vendors, each able to experiment with new business models. Buy a print book, get an e-book free? Buy a print book and e-book for one low price? Buy one, get one free? Buy in multiple formats?
Kindle Open Book - §18
Apple has played the same game to perfection with the iPhone App Store. The Cupertino company seems to have a knack for balancing the benefits of both open and closed architectures that Amazon has yet to discover. While Apple maintains tight control over what goes into the App Store, there's a loophole big enough to drive a truck through: Any Web page can act as an application for the iPhone.
Kindle Open Book - Conclusion
Open allows experimentation. Open encourages competition. Open wins. Amazon needs to get with the program. Or, like AOL and MSN, Amazon will wind up another online pioneer who ends up a belated guest at the party it planned to host.
